The Cromford Report

Greater Phoenix - Residential Resale

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The Cromford Report ...

is owned and produced by Cromford Associates LLC, an Arizona limited liability company managed by Mike Orr and based in Mesa AZ.

Mike holds a masters degree in Mathematics from the University of Oxford in England and spent 31 years in the computer industry, working for IBM, Amdahl, Splash Technology and the Santa Cruz Operation. In his most recent positions he was President of Tarantella and CEO of Mobilearia.

He first started investing in real estate in 1976 and left the computer industry to focus on real estate in 2002.

Contact

mike@cromfordreport.com

The Cromford Report™ provides detailed information to track the history and current status of the Greater Phoenix residential resale market and offers unique insight into its future direction.

Updated daily and usually published online within a few hours, this site is intended for anyone interested in the state of the market and how it affects their investments and livelihood. Our goal is to present data that is timely, informative and easy to understand - data not available anywhere else in this level of detail or immediacy.

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Snapshot City Ranking Dashboard Daily Observations News & Commentary Cromford Index
  1. January 25 - The presentation from the Russ Lyon Sotheby's Meeting can be found here.
  2. January 18 - The annual snapshot has been updatd and can be found here.
  3. January 17 - The presentation from the "The Chader Event" can be found here.
  4. January 8 - A new presentation download is available here. This is from INSIGHT 2012.
  5. December 24 - In 2003 Canadians accounted for only 0.4% of real estate purchases in Greater Phoenix. Since 2008 they have been buying far more and now are buyers in about 4% of residential transactions. To see where they have been focusing their attention, please see the map Residences Owned by Canadians. This is based on the assessor's data and the owner's mailing address. If the owner has a non-Canadian address to which tax bills are sent, then their home will not be included in our map. This is copyrighted material and you must be a Cromford Report subscriber to use and/or share it.
  6. December 24 - Many areas of Greater Phoenix do not correspond to specific ZIP codes and can be tricky to analyze. Some are not even confined within one municipality. One example is Arcadia which includes much of Phoenix 85018 (but not all) and a significant portion of Scottsdale 85251. Another problem is that people often disagree about exactly where the borders of these districts lie. We have taken the plunge and defined Arcadia our way and can share a map that not only identifies the market area also illustrates how home values vary within it. This opens in a new window where you can resize it and zoom in or out to meet your needs. To obtain it please click here. This is copyrighted material and you must be a Cromford Report subscriber to use and/or share it.
  7. December 23 - Trustee Deeds by Month - a new chart showing how foreclosures are in decline - if you are a subscriber to the Cromford Report you can easily share it by email or embed it in your own web site using the Share button. You can also change the size using the Display Options that appear one you click on Share.
  8. December 5 - Information for ARMLS subscribers who have been using the free trial subscription.
  9. October 5 - We have added a chart to the Distressed Sales by City page, allowing you to compare last month with the situation one year ago.
  10. September 18 - We have a new Daily Observations section - Tom Ruff & Mike Orr will be posting our real-time comments as we analyze each day's transactions.
  11. July 2 - A new chart has been added - REO Inventory by ZIP (including "Shadow Inventory") showing the decline in distressed inventories since November 2010

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Market Statistic
Reading
Extreme
Date
Annual Sales $/SF $81.73 record low 11/21/11
Annual Sales $/SF as % Peak 44.3% record low 11/21/11
Appreciation - Long Term $/SF -1.5% record low 11/01/11
Average Price - Annual Sales $156,944 record low 11/21/11
Average Price - Monthly Sales $151,056 record low 9/05/11
Median Price - Monthly Sales $107,000 record low 2/24/11
Monthly Sales $/SF $78.83 record low 9/15/11
Monthly Sales $/SF as % Peak 41.4% record low 9/15/11
Pending Listings $/SF $77.59 record low 8/20/11

These are based on the current millennium (2001 onwards). The figures shown are for the entire ARMLS area and all dwelling types are included. For-sale-by-owner, auctions and other non-MLS transactions are not included. For more detailed information on record highs and lows please see the Extremes section.

September 5, 2011 is currently our candidate for the lowest monthly average sale price and September 15, 2011 saw the lowest monthly average sales $/SF. Since September 15 all readings have been higher for both these measures.

Our lowest median sales price was recorded on February 24, 2011. This minimum value of $107,000 was also recorded on August 9, 17 and 18.

With the market having moved higher during the fourth quarter there have been no new records set since November 21.

The Cromford Report is designed to help you answer your questions about the Greater Phoenix residential real estate market. For example:

  • How does today's market compare with the same time last year?
  • Which price range is selling fastest over the last month?
  • In which city are REO buyers most active right now?
  • Which is the cheapest area to buy a resale home?
  • How long is it taking to sell a home in my ZIP code?
  • What is the balance of supply and demand for resale homes in my city?
  • What proportion of homes for sale are short sales or pre-foreclosures?
  • Where are prices changing fastest?
  • What percentage of listings are finding a buyer before they are canceled or expire?
  • Are today's list prices realistic compared with achieved sales prices?

You can find tools to help you answer all the above questions, and many more, within the Cromford Report web-site.